Monday, July 12, 2010

Is History Repeating Itself?

An article by Donald L. Luskin in the Opinions section of last Friday's Wall Street Journal is very sobering. Mr. Luskin is Chief Investment Officer at Trend Macrolytics, LLC.

His article, which also appears on Trend Macrolytics website, demonstrates the eerie similarities between the course of the S&P 500 leading up to the double dip recession in 1938 and the course of the S&P 500 over the past year. The article is well worth reading, but the chart below, which was made by Trend Macrolytics, summarizes the salient points of data in a glance.


If you believe the stock market can presage the future direction of our economy, then this is the kind of information that bears thoughtful scrutiny.

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